Fenerbahçe
W
Full time
2 – 0
Sturm GrazFiled 23:07 UTC · locked in with the confirmed lineups
Lineups confirmed Settled · SharpCast Pick Won
Sturm GrazFiled 23:07 UTC · locked in with the confirmed lineups
Fenerbahçe project 1.75 expected goals against Sturm Graz's 0.76, giving the home side the clearer attacking advantage, though the market prices this higher at 72 percent; the model rates it at 58 percent.
Tap any market for the model's reasoning, the numbers behind it and to track the pick. Fair price is the de overrounded model probability expressed as decimal odds, not a bookmaker quote.
The SharpCast Builder is a same-game multi built only from this fixture's own picks. Because the legs come from one match they are correlated, and the combined chance is priced over the projected scorelines rather than multiplied as if independent. The price shown is the model's fair price for that chance.
The same-game multi for this fixture, built from its own picks and priced for correlation, is a Pro feature.
2.5 expected goals · most likely total 2 · a balanced game
Running on the league baseline, no team cards history yet. Treat as a guide, not a team specific read.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. It was locked before kickoff and is kept on this site.
model probability · fair price
Each side's goals per game over recent matches (the bar) against the expected goals their chances were worth (the tick). Scoring past the tick means finishing well; conceding inside the tick means defending well.